Abrupt Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
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Climate is changing as humans put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. With CO2 levels today around 400ppm, we are clearly committed to far more climate change, both in the near term, and well beyond our children’s future. A key question is how that change will occur. Abrupt climate changes are those that exceed our expectations, preparedness, and ability to adapt. Such changes challenge us economically, physically, and socially. This talk will draw upon results from ice core research over the past twenty years, as well as a new NRC report on abrupt climate change in order to address abrupt change, as seen in the past in ice cores, as seen today in key environmental systems upon which humans depend, and what may be coming in the future. ~ James White, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research
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physics of nature makes thing freeze.Obliquity of Earths orbit is slow but the moment a large sea/land glacier crosses the artic circle then temp will cool annualy pretty quickly.I would have thought that was pretty obvious.
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THE PERVERSE IDEATIONIST LAWSUIT "SOLUTION."
Mary Christina Wood is the Philip H. Knight Professor of Law
and Faculty Director of the U. of Oregon School of Environmental and
Natural Resources Law Program.
She pulls down about 180 thou per year in salary.
Mary absorbed her legal reasoning at prestigious Stanford.
Mary says that the sacred law, & stern black robed lawyer/judges
armed with a “new mindset” can save the planet & its people.
MARY IS COMPLETELY SERIOUS.
The following is an an excerpt from Mary Christina Wood’s legal
blockbuster 2013 book, NATURE'S TRUST: Environmental Law For a New
Ecological Age.
“Today’s judges retain all of the tools necessary to enforce public
trust obligations. But enforcement requires courage and a change of
judicial mindset, an awakening by judges to the ecological urgencies of
today’s world, and an appreciation of their branch’s crucial role in
government’s balance of power.”
“The world needs extraordinary jurists across the globe who, in
solidarity with great legal minds that came before them, will rise to
their constitutional duties and enforce the rights of the people as
beneficiaries of Nature’s Trust.”
Mary is completely serious, & serious legal scholars are seriously praising her serious book, in all seriousness.
"ALL HOPE ON FINDING THE RIGHT JUDICIAL MINDSET(S)?" -
Thank you so much for posting this... I searched on the AGU site and they have a broken link to the video... I'm sure it has nothing to do with Exxon sponsorship of AGU... nor that this is one of the most powerful and important videos they could offer... but I feel confident the AGU will erase any indication of their pro carbon energy bias. Afterall they are a geophysical union ... and act as a hiring hall for geology grad students, and most geologists are hired by the oil, gas and coal industry, -- so it makes sense that AGU would want to get probed, reamed and paid by their over-lord ExxonMobil and others . After-all, it is jobs and the economy this quarter they care most about... - and not for years into the future... but wait, what is it in the content of this video that might upset AGU that they would not post it?... You must see this video. Twice.
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For context during the Pleistocene average CO2 rate-of-change 1-ppm/1000-years, big jump up at the end of the last ice-age 1-ppm/180-years last year's record was 3.05-ppm, one year.
For "natural variation" ice-age to interglacial 180-280-ppm max 305±5-ppm 9% variation at 407-ppm it's 45%, where in there is the line to a geologic excursion from too-much-too-fast on the carbon?
Recall Archer & others pointing to the 10,000-year/25% rule, 1/4 of emissions are still there 10,000-years later how the planet works so last year was 37-Gigatons CO2eq leaving 9.25-Gt there 10,000-years from now.
This has added up every episode when emissions acidify the ocean during the Industrial Age or any geologic age, that's how to tell and it takes thousands of years to get it back out, we can zero emissions and sea-level & CO2 continue to rise for a few centuries and if you start again it's like you never stopped so sea-level and heating will rise again.
Don't count on the tiny-humans to make the right choice ... -
It is unlikely that warm water creeps under the ice sheets that are grounded below sea level. To the contrary, warm water from the oceans is sucked in. As the front of the ice sheet melts, it freshens the water in contact with the face which then flows in an 'undensity' current up the ceiling to flow out on the surface of the sea. Of course, this sucks in more water to replace it with it's entrained supply of calories. The deeper the ice face, the more powerful this 'water lift' (like an air lift but due to water of less density than it's surroundings.)
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I love it. This is at or about 15:30. We argued as to whether or not people would believe a five year change, so we changed it to 50 years. Does this not sound like a corruption of science so people will believe you? Sounds like some emails I heard about. After hearing that I have total confidence in what this guy has to say. BULL SHIT
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Begins at 13:06
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In Dec. World Leaders are to meet in Paris to discuss Global Warming, at issue is the amount of greenhouse gases we our emitting, and their plan of action, to Stop this Heating Up, Drought, Flooding, Sea Level Rising 220 Feet, and The Burning Up of Our Planet !
23,000 Fire Fighters, Fighting Fires in California, Washington, Oregon, and Montana 8 / 22 / 2015
For Each 1.0C. Temp Rise, Atmospheric Moisture Increases 7%
Globally we our emitting 40 - 50 Billion Toxic Tons of Carbon Dioxide a Year.
The United States emitted 6.8 Billion Toxic Tons of Carbon Dioxide in 2014
In the 1850s - 1870s parts per million of Carbon in our atmosphere was between 260 - 280.
In the 1980s, there was 350 ppm of Carbon.
2015 - 404 ppm in Our Atmosphere.
We have passed the 1C. baseline Temp Increase !
India, Pakistan, Japan, and the Middle East, Record Breaking, Killing Heat Waves !
The Pacific Ocean is 3 - 8 degrees warmer than Normal, and Flowing in to the Arctic Ocean
Massive Whales, Salmon, Starfish, Sea Lions, Sea Urchins, Dolphins, Crabs, and Bird Die - Offs !
The Jet Stream is acting like a balloon that is loosing air.
The Arctic Ice and Snow may be gone at the end of this Summer or at the end of 2017, A Huge Natural Cooler for the Northern Hemisphere, that is 3 million years old .
The meeting in Paris, should be about Closing the Fossil Fuel Faucet.
"Professor Chris Field is bullshitting the planet. On whether 1.5C is still feasible" Kevin Hester
"The message is already clear, that if the world does want to strive to limit warming to 1.5C or less, we don't have very much of the carbon budget left." Professeor Chris Field
"There is no carbon budget any more and 5C is baked in according to both Shell petroleum and the International Energy Authority. " Kevin Hester
"Chris Field is the founding director of the Carnegie Institution's department of global ecology and professor for interdisciplinary environmental studies at Stanford University. He is the co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) working group two (WGII) and US nominee for the chair of the IPCC."
With people like this driving the IPCC you can see why we are all done for." Kevin Hester.
There is No Carbon Budget
California emitted 459 Toxic Tons of Carbon Dioxide in 2014.
Gov Browns call to reduce this to 1990 levels so we can continue to emit over 400 million Toxic Tons a year, will not help us stop or slow down Global Warming and Sea Levels Rising.
"Updates to the 2020 Limit.
Calculation of the original 1990 limit approved in 2007 was revised using the scientifically updated IPCC 2007 fourth assessment report (AR4) global warming potentials, to 431 MMTCO2e. Thus the 2020 GHG emissions limit established in response to AB 32 is now slightly higher than the 427 MMTCO2e in the initial Scoping Plan." Ca. Gov. Data
What will the Temp. be at 415 ppm ?
"Ice sheets contain enormous quantities of frozen water. If the Greenland Ice Sheet melted, scientists estimate that sea level would rise about 6 meters (20 feet). If the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted, sea level would rise by about 60 meters (200 feet)." National Snow and Ice Data Center.
When will Sea Level Rise to 220 - 300 Feet ? 2020 ? 2025 ? ?
What will the ppm of Carbon be when this happens ?
As of Now, they are talking about capping GHGs at 450 ppm.
What will the Temp. be at 450 ppm ?
We must transition to 100% Renewable Energy
Implement a California Residential and Commercial Feed in Tariff.
California Residential Feed in Tariff would allow homeowners to sell their Renewable Energy to the utility, protecting our communities from, Global Warming, Poison Water, Grid Failures, Natural Disasters, Toxic Natural Gas and Oil Fracking.
A California Commercial FiT in Los Angeles, Palo Alto, an Sacramento Ca. are operating NOW, paying the Business Person 17 cents cents per kilowatt hour.
Sign and Share this petition for a California Residential Feed in Tariff.
http://signon.org/sign/let-california-home-owners -
Great talk.
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Anyone who does not know that Climate Change and Global Warming is destroying the Earth's Environment has been brainwashed by the Oil Billionaires.
97 percent of the Scientist say that Climate Change and Global Warming is occurring. The 3 percent of the Scientist who say that Global Warming is not occurring, have been paid off by the Oil Billionaires. And the Oil Billionaires have spent millions of dollars on a Media Campaign to brainwash people to believe that Global Warming is not occurring. Wake Up.
The Oil Billionaires are working at Destroying all life on Earth with their Gasoline powered automobiles.
The EPA should go full guns in preventing Carbon Emissions. Carbon Emission are in fact, destroying the Earth's Environment. Pollution is already killing 6,000,000 people a year. -
would have been so much better without the jokes and cute anecdotes.
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No mention of methane release in the arctic when the ice melts? I'd like to know what the Arctic Methane Emergency Group of scientists have to say about that, some of who are predicting our extinction within 20 years because of it. Methane emissions from the artic has increased 5 fold in just one year from 2014-2015.
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Great piece! Thanks for sharing...
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Climate scientists are beginning to speak out about the dangers we face but this is one of the most worrying i have seen. Made all the more scary because the lecture is given to a roomful of scientists.
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08:03 Tipping point, Niagra falls analogy, we should stay near the shore.
LOL, we are so far from the shore right now we might just have to hope we can survive the fall. -
On flood insurance and property values at 36:53: No wonder Florida outlawed the mention of Climate Change among state government agencies. It's a complete plausible deniability tactic. Florida is going to need an inordinate amount of bailout funds in the form of relief. If the dollar doesn't remain the world reserve currency as it stands today, this state's liabilities may put this country in the same position as Greece today or worse. Not only that, it's difficult to imagine the world coming to the aid of this country considering it's historic role in carbon emissions and deliberate derailment of so many reduction treaties along the way.
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I knew 20 years ago that we were seriously understating the situation, out of fear or simple caution. Still, we have people below who still put politics over science (or bastardize the science to maintain their own argument). Here is the breakdown: If WE are wrong, whoopsie, sorry, no big deal. If THEY are wrong, there is no whoopsie, no saying you are sorry. I suggest these people who try to downplay it - AND HAVE CHILDREN - are some sick mofos. They are willing to put their children's future at risk, just so that they can pompously sit in righteousness in their political views. Fk their children and millions of others in poor, low-lying countries, it's more important that they have the right political view. Sick, sick masochists. Willing to gamble on their own children's lives. I love their children more than they do, apparently, since I would NEVER take such a cavalier gamble on other being's future.
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Abrupt Climate Change explained by Jim White, 12 Minutes excerpt (@AGU 2014) http://climatestate.com/2015/04/13/abrupt-climate-change-explained-by-jim-white-12-minutes-excerpt-agu-2014/
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I am having trouble getting my head around the proposal of abrupt climate change and tipping points. Let me see. They predicted a direct link of CO2 to warming, and with 20 years of cooling, they are real mad. So there are tipping points and when warming snaps back, just you wait, it will be sudden and irreversible and you will all die. A tipping point. We told you so. Is that it? Look, name all the tipping points, and where we are in relationship to them. Oh, that is missing. A talk on tipping points with no tipping points. Okay, so this is propaganda. He lists lots of very noisy surrogate data of past climate changes and says this shows doom. Well, I dunno, maybe the data is bad data too. How reliable is an abrupt change in ice core data with no date calibration possible? How does that work for you? Ice accumulation is not constant. You cannot measure X feet to get date Y. We don't have any clue of the real time scale of these changes. Who the hell cares if summer sea ice has declined when it rebounds in fall two weeks later? We had two major El Nino events, 1998, and 2004. Does this not mean the northern Pacific warmed? This has had no impact on Arctic ice? So, the ice extent did what, go up or go down? Yes, with those events it went down. Okay. So. Why did you do a linear fit to time series data for summer sea ice? That has no meaning. Do a running average and the recent years have gone up. Fit a polynomial function, and the recent ice trend is back up. The U.S. climate assessment report by the Obama administration shows ocean acidification based on one station at Aloha, Hawaii. That is it. They fit a trend to that 20 years of data, which is pointless. Get rid of that and there was a small decline in 1998 El Nino, and has been level since. Okay. So. In conclusion, he showed no tipping points at all and where we are relative to any. This is real sad. If you have no data and want to fantasize, go ahead. Ideas like that are the basis of investigation, so go check it out and find one and report back, but don't whine to me about it in the meantime. Oh whoa, Al Gore maps of mass death is sea level rises. Bud, it is rising 1 mm a year. Shit man, calm down. Since the end of the last Ice Age, it has already risen 400 feet, and you wanna cry to me about another millimeter? Do you understand why I am not listening? In his summary, eugenics and population control. One child policy then enforced sterilization. There you go, Fascist, get to it.
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If only these underdeveloped countries knew that industrialization is not all it's cracked up to be. Stay true to the earth, and all the freedoms and happiness that brings you. Trust me, you don't want a car where you sit in traffic for hours to go sit in an office in front of a computer, or at an assembly plant at a factory. Less is more.
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